With the nominations announced and the 98th Academy Awards ceremony set for March 15, 2026, the Oscar race is heating up. “Sinners” made history with a record-breaking 16 nominations, but will Ryan Coogler’s vampire thriller actually win Best Picture? Can Timothée Chalamet finally claim his first Oscar, or will Leonardo DiCaprio add another trophy to his shelf?
After analyzing the Golden Globes results, SAG (Actor Awards) nominations, Critics’ Choice winners, DGA and PGA nominations, plus insights from Gold Derby experts and major entertainment outlets, here are the definitive predictions for who will win at the 2026 Oscars in every category.
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Paul Thomas Anderson’s political revolutionary drama has emerged as the frontrunner after dominating the Golden Globes with 4 wins (including Best Director and Best Screenplay) and earning 13 Oscar nominations. The film features an ensemble cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio, has the critical acclaim PTA films always receive, and tackles timely political themes that resonate with Academy voters.
Why it will win: PTA has never won Best Picture despite multiple nominations. The Academy may feel it’s finally time to honor one of the greatest living American filmmakers with the top prize. The film swept the Actor Awards (SAG) for Best Ensemble, and historically, the SAG Ensemble winner often aligns with the Best Picture victor.
Could Win: “Sinners”
Ryan Coogler’s record-breaking 16 nominations represent unprecedented support for a genre film. The supernatural vampire thriller set in the segregated South has technical mastery across all categories and features a career-best performance from Michael B. Jordan (playing dual roles). If voters want to make history and finally give a horror/genre film the top prize, this is the year.
The Case Against: Horror films have NEVER won Best Picture. The Academy’s historical bias against genre films is hard to overcome, no matter how many nominations a film receives. “Sinners” might win in technical categories but fall short of the top prize.
Dark Horse: “Hamnet”
Chloé Zhao’s Shakespeare family drama won Best Picture at the Golden Globes and features powerful performances from Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal (though he was surprisingly snubbed for Best Actor). The Academy loves period dramas, and Zhao already won Best Director for “Nomadland” in 2021, proving she has strong support among voters.
Also Nominated:
– “Marty Supreme” – Timothée Chalamet’s ping-pong drama has momentum
– “Frankenstein” – Guillermo del Toro’s gothic masterpiece
– “Sentimental Value” – Norwegian film with 9 nominations
– “The Secret Agent” – Brazilian thriller starring Wagner Moura
– “Bugonia” – Yorgos Lanthimos dark comedy with Emma Stone
– “F1” – Brad Pitt’s racing drama (surprise nomination)
– “Train Dreams” – Annie Baker’s quiet character study
PREDICTION: “One Battle After Another” wins Best Picture
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”
PTA’s Golden Globe win for Best Director positions him as the overwhelming favorite. He’s been nominated for Best Director three times previously (for “There Will Be Blood,” “The Master,” and “Phantom Thread”) without winning. The narrative of “finally rewarding PTA” is powerful, and his 13-nomination haul for “One Battle After Another” demonstrates across-the-board Academy support.
Could Win: Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”
Coogler’s technical achievement with “Sinners” is undeniable—16 nominations don’t happen by accident. He’s a beloved filmmaker who delivered both the billion-dollar “Black Panther” franchise and this ambitious genre film. If the Academy wants to celebrate a visionary Black filmmaker achieving unprecedented success, Coogler could pull off the upset.
The History Factor: Only five Black directors have ever been nominated for Best Director in Oscar history. Coogler winning would be a significant moment.
Dark Horse: Chloé Zhao – “Hamnet”
Zhao won Best Director for “Nomadland” just five years ago, which typically makes a repeat win unlikely. However, “Hamnet” winning Best Picture at the Golden Globes keeps her in the conversation.
Also Nominated:
– Josh Safdie – “Marty Supreme”
– Joachim Trier – “Sentimental Value”
Notable Snub: Guillermo del Toro wasn’t nominated for directing “Frankenstein” despite the film earning 9 nominations.
PREDICTION: Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director
BEST ACTOR
This is the most competitive category of the night, with three legitimate frontrunners and no clear winner.
Will Win (by a hair): Leonardo DiCaprio – “One Battle After Another”
The Case For DiCaprio:
– If “One Battle After Another” wins Best Picture and Best Director, Best Actor could complete the sweep
– DiCaprio is beloved by the Academy (1 win, 7 nominations total)
– He delivers a transformative performance in a period revolutionary role
– Recent Oscar history shows Best Picture winners often carry Best Actor (Cillian Murphy for “Oppenheimer,” Brendan Fraser’s win coincided with “Everything Everywhere” dominating)
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme”
The Case For Chalamet:
– This is viewed as Chalamet’s “coronation” moment—his time to finally win
– He’s young (29) but incredibly talented, and the Academy loves anointing the next generation
– The role is a departure from his usual pretty-boy parts, showing range
– Strong critical acclaim for a character-driven performance
– He inspired the entire “Marty Supreme” project, giving him a compelling narrative
The Case Against: The Academy historically doesn’t give Oscars to “pretty boys” until they’re older or uglier themselves up. Chalamet might be too young and too handsome.
Could Win: Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners”
The Case For Jordan:
– First Oscar nomination after years as a beloved Hollywood star
– Plays dual roles (twins), which is technically challenging
– Could benefit if DiCaprio and Chalamet split votes
– “Sinners” has massive support with 16 nominations
– Popular actor finally getting his due is a narrative the Academy loves
The Case Against: Genre film performances rarely win Best Actor. The last actor to win for a horror/supernatural film was Anthony Hopkins for “The Silence of the Lambs” in 1992.
Long Shots:
– Wagner Moura – “The Secret Agent” (Golden Globe winner, first Brazilian nominated)
– Stellan Skarsgård – “Sentimental Value” (veteran character actor respect)
PREDICTION: Leonardo DiCaprio wins Best Actor in a close race over Timothée Chalamet
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet”
Buckley won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama and delivers a powerhouse performance as Shakespeare’s wife dealing with grief and family tragedy. “Hamnet” winning Best Picture at the Globes gives her momentum, and the Academy loves honoring British actresses in period dramas.
The Wild Card Factor: This category feels less locked than others, with five strong contenders.
Could Win: Emma Stone – “Bugonia”
Stone has won Best Actress twice already (for “La La Land” and “Poor Things”), which makes a third win within a decade unlikely but not impossible. If voters adore Yorgos Lanthimos’ latest weird dark comedy and want to reward Stone’s commitment to challenging roles, she could pull it off.
The Case Against: Three Best Actress wins in 10 years would be unprecedented in modern times.
Could Win: Rose Byrne – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Byrne’s first Oscar nomination at age 45 (playing a mother dealing with loss) has generated significant buzz. The Academy loves rewarding overdue actresses, and Byrne has been a respected character actress for decades without major awards recognition.
Spoiler Alert: Comedic performances often get nominated but rarely win Best Actress.
Also Strong:
– Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners” (Could benefit from the film’s 16 nominations)
– Hailee Steinfeld – “Sinners” (Two nominees from same film might split votes)
Notable Snub: Cynthia Erivo for “Wicked: For Good” was shockingly left out after the first film earned her a nomination.
PREDICTION: Jessie Buckley wins Best Actress
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein”
The “Euphoria” star’s first Oscar nomination has generated excitement, and his Critics’ Choice Award win signals strong support. Playing a role in Guillermo del Toro’s gothic masterpiece gives him the prestige factor, and the Academy loves rewarding young actors making the leap to serious dramatic work.
Historical Note: In the 32 years of Critics’ Choice Awards, every winner in Best Supporting Actor has gone on to win the Oscar except for rare instances. Elordi’s Critics’ Choice win is a very strong indicator.
Could Win: Benicio del Toro – “One Battle After Another”
Del Toro is a previous Oscar winner (Best Supporting Actor for “Traffic” in 2001) and delivers another powerful performance in PTA’s film. If “One Battle After Another” sweeps the major categories, del Toro could ride that wave.
The Problem: “One Battle After Another” has TWO supporting actor nominees (del Toro and Sean Penn), which will likely split votes and prevent either from winning.
Long Shot: Stellan Skarsgård – “Sentimental Value”
The Swedish character actor (nominated for both Lead and Supporting!) is highly respected and has never won an Oscar despite a distinguished career. A “lifetime achievement” supporting win isn’t impossible.
Also Nominated:
– Delroy Lindo – “Sinners”
– Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another”
PREDICTION: Jacob Elordi wins Best Supporting Actor
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another”
The Golden Globe winner has momentum on her side. Taylor’s transition from music to serious acting (her first Oscar nomination!) makes for a compelling narrative. Playing a revolutionary dealing with postpartum depression while fighting political oppression showcases incredible range.
Why she wins: The Academy loves rewarding successful crossovers from other entertainment fields (think Jennifer Hudson, Jamie Foxx). Taylor’s “One Battle After Another” co-star Leonardo DiCaprio likely wins Best Actor, which could create a sweep scenario.
Could Win: Amy Madigan – “Weapons”
Madigan won the Critics’ Choice Award, making her a serious threat. She’s a veteran actress (previous Oscar nominee for “Twice in a Lifetime” in 1986) who has been criminally under-recognized throughout her career.
The “Overdue” Factor: The Academy loves honoring veterans who’ve never won.
Also Strong:
– Emily Blunt – “The Smashing Machine” (Beloved actress, multiple nominations, never won)
– Elle Fanning – “Sentimental Value” (First nomination, young talent)
– Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – “Sentimental Value” (Could split votes with Fanning)
Notable Snub: Ariana Grande for “Wicked: For Good” was shocking given her first film earned a nomination.
PREDICTION: Teyana Taylor wins Best Supporting Actress
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another”
PTA won the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay and writes some of the most acclaimed original screenplays in modern cinema (“There Will Be Blood,” “The Master,” “Boogie Nights”). If he’s winning Best Picture and Best Director, this completes a historic sweep.
Could Win: Ryan Coogler – “Sinners”
Coogler’s ambitious screenplay for “Sinners” balances genre thrills with serious themes about race, violence, and American history. With 16 nominations, the film needs to win SOMETHING beyond technical categories, and Original Screenplay is a possibility.
Also Nominated:
– Josh Safdie & Ronald Bronstein – “Marty Supreme”
– Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt – “Sentimental Value”
– Annie Baker – “Train Dreams”
PREDICTION: Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Original Screenplay
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro – “Frankenstein”
Del Toro’s adaptation of Mary Shelley’s classic novel has been praised for respecting the source material while adding his signature gothic visual style. Though he wasn’t nominated for Best Director (surprisingly), the Academy could honor his writing here.
Could Win: Chloé Zhao – “Hamnet”
Zhao adapting the novel about Shakespeare’s family won Best Picture at the Golden Globes, which boosts all the film’s categories. Adapted Screenplay is where voters might reward the film if it doesn’t win Picture.
Also Nominated:
– Patrick Somerville – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
– Yorgos Lanthimos & Efthimis Filippou – “Bugonia”
– Kleber Mendonça Filho & Emilie Lesclaux – “The Secret Agent”
PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro wins Best Adapted Screenplay
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: “Flow”
The Latvian animated film about a cat surviving a flood has swept critics’ awards and represents the kind of innovative, dialogue-free storytelling the Academy loves rewarding in this category.
Could Win: “Inside Out 2”
Pixar’s sequel was a massive box office hit (over $1.6 billion worldwide) and received strong reviews. The Academy loves Pixar, and “Inside Out 2” could benefit from its cultural impact.
Dark Horse: “The Wild Robot”
DreamWorks’ adaptation has been an unexpected awards contender with beautiful animation and an emotional story.
Also Nominated:
– “KPop Demon Hunters” (Won 2 Golden Globes, Netflix’s most-watched movie ever)
– “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
PREDICTION: “Flow” wins Best Animated Feature
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Will Win: “The Secret Agent” (Brazil)
Wagner Moura’s starring vehicle from Brazilian director Kleber Mendonça Filho has become a critical darling and represents Brazil’s best shot at winning this category. Moura’s Best Actor nomination (first for a Brazilian) boosts the film’s profile significantly.
Could Win: “Sentimental Value” (Norway)
With 9 Oscar nominations (most ever for a Norwegian film), Joachim Trier’s drama has massive Academy support. It could become a surprise winner similar to previous foreign language Best Picture nominees that won this category.
Also Nominated:
– “It Was Just an Accident” (France)
– “Sirât” (Spain)
– “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Tunisia)
PREDICTION: “The Secret Agent” wins Best International Feature
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: “No Other Land”
This Palestinian-Israeli co-production about West Bank occupation has won major critics’ prizes and addresses timely political issues that resonate with Academy voters who value socially conscious documentaries.
Could Win: “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
Belgian documentary about the assassination of Patrice Lumumba combines archival footage with modern analysis in a technically impressive package.
Also Nominated:
– “A New Kind of Wilderness”
– “Black Box Diaries”
– “Sugarcane”
PREDICTION: “No Other Land” wins Best Documentary Feature
TECHNICAL CATEGORIES PREDICTIONS
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: “Sinners”
Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s work on Coogler’s vampire film is visually stunning, utilizing period photography techniques and innovative lighting.
Could Win: “Frankenstein,” “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet”
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: “Sinners”
The film’s pacing and visual rhythm are essential to its success.
Could Win: “One Battle After Another,” “Marty Supreme”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Guillermo del Toro’s gothic world-building is his signature, and production design is where his films always shine.
Could Win: “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” “One Battle After Another”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: “Sinners”
Period costumes for a 1930s Mississippi setting with vampire elements require both historical accuracy and creative flair.
Could Win: “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet”
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Creating the Creature and other gothic characters requires prosthetics mastery.
Could Win: “Sinners”
BEST SOUND
Will Win: “Sinners”
The film’s atmospheric sound design creates the vampire horror ambiance.
Could Win: “F1” (racing sounds), “Frankenstein”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: “Sinners”
Subtle but effective VFX enhance the supernatural elements.
Could Win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “Frankenstein,” “KPop Demon Hunters”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: “Sinners”
Ludwig Göransson already won the Golden Globe for this score.
Could Win: “One Battle After Another,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
Already won the Golden Globe and is from Netflix’s most-watched movie ever.
Could Win: “I Lied to You” from “Sinners”
THE NEW CATEGORY: BEST CASTING
Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
The film’s ensemble cast (DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn, Regina Hall, and more) required assembling A-list talent for a politically charged drama. Casting director will likely ride the film’s overall success.
Could Win: “Sinners”
Michael B. Jordan in dual roles plus a strong supporting cast.
Also Nominated:
– “Hamnet”
– “Marty Supreme”
– “The Secret Agent”
PREDICTION: “One Battle After Another” wins Best Casting
FINAL PREDICTIONS – THE BIG WINNERS
Based on all available data from guild awards, critics’ prizes, and historical patterns:
“One Battle After Another” will likely win:
– Best Picture
– Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson)
– Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio)
– Best Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor)
– Best Original Screenplay (Paul Thomas Anderson)
– Best Casting
– Possibly Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Production Design, Best Score
Total Predicted Wins: 6-9 Oscars
“Sinners” will likely win:
– Best Cinematography
– Best Film Editing
– Best Costume Design
– Best Sound
– Best Visual Effects
– Possibly Best Original Score
Total Predicted Wins: 5-6 Oscars
Despite its record 16 nominations, “Sinners” faces the genre curse that prevents horror films from winning the top prizes.
Other Major Winners:
– “Frankenstein” – Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Makeup
– “Flow” – Best Animated Feature
– “The Secret Agent” – Best International Feature
– Jacob Elordi – Best Supporting Actor
– Jessie Buckley – Best Actress
THE WILDCARD SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: “Sinners” Breaks the Horror Curse
If Academy voters decide to finally reward a genre film with Best Picture, “Sinners” could sweep and win 10+ Oscars, making Ryan Coogler the first Black director to win Best Director and Best Picture. This would be historic but goes against 98 years of Oscar precedent.
Likelihood: 15%
Scenario 2: “Hamnet” Surprise Sweep
The Golden Globes Best Picture winner could ride late momentum to upset “One Battle After Another.” Chloé Zhao becomes a two-time Best Director winner, and the film takes Picture, Director, Actress (Buckley), and Adapted Screenplay.
Likelihood: 20%
Scenario 3: Split Decisions
No film dominates. “One Battle” wins Picture, “Sinners” wins Director, Chalamet wins Actor, and awards are spread across 6-7 films. This creates a memorable but chaotic ceremony where no one film stands out.
Likelihood: 25%
Scenario 4: PTA Sweep (Our Prediction)
“One Battle After Another” dominates with 7-9 wins including Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay. Paul Thomas Anderson finally gets his Oscar recognition in a big way, similar to “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in 2023.
Likelihood: 40%
KEY FACTORS TO WATCH
1. SAG Awards (February 15)
The Screen Actors Guild Awards are highly predictive of Oscar acting winners. Watch which actors win at SAG—they almost always match the Oscars.
2. DGA Awards (February 22)
The Directors Guild winner has matched the Oscar winner for Best Director in 17 of the last 20 years. If PTA wins DGA, he’s winning the Oscar.
3. PGA Awards (March 8)
The Producers Guild Best Picture winner has matched the Oscar Best Picture in 13 of the last 17 years. This is the most predictive guild award for Best Picture.
4. Box Office Performance
“Sinners” has grossed over $200 million domestically and is still in theaters. Increased box office after nominations could boost its chances—voters like rewarding financially successful films.
5. International Film Momentum
“Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” have strong international support. If they gain momentum, they could pull off upsets in their respective categories or even push for Best Picture.
CONCLUSION: THE OSCARS NIGHT NARRATIVE
March 15, 2026, will likely be remembered as Paul Thomas Anderson‘s Night. After decades of creating masterpieces without winning the top prize, “One Battle After Another” appears positioned to finally reward one of America’s greatest living filmmakers with Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Actor for Leonardo DiCaprio.
However, Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” making history with 16 nominations ensures the night won’t be a complete sweep. The vampire thriller will dominate technical categories and could pull off shocking upsets in major races if voters decide it’s time to end the horror genre curse.
Jessie Buckley and Jacob Elordi represent the next generation of acting talent receiving their first Oscars, while Teyana Taylor’s win would celebrate a successful crossover from music to serious dramatic acting.
The ceremony, hosted by Conan O’Brien, promises to be entertaining, emotional, and potentially historic. Whether PTA gets his coronation, Coogler breaks barriers, or a surprise film emerges victorious, the 98th Academy Awards will be a night to remember.
Mark your calendars: Sunday, March 15, 2026, 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT on ABC
Stay tuned to AllBioHub.com for live updates, reactions, and complete coverage of the 98th Academy Awards. We’ll be tracking every development from now until Oscar night!
